The monsoon clouds hang over Dhaka’s sky. There are clouds over the political horizon too—but the two kinds of clouds are not quite the same. Clouds in the sky bring rain; political clouds sometimes bring statements, sometimes diplomatic pressure, and sometimes mysterious visits!

On August 10, 2026, on just such a mysterious day, Parag Jain, chief of India’s external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), arrived in Dhaka. He held a meeting with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister’s Defence Affairs Adviser, Brigadier General (Retd.) Dr. A. K. M. Shamsul Islam. At the same time, India’s newly appointed High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi also met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.

It is therefore difficult to dismiss the visit as merely a “drop-in-for-tea” trip.

That said, a visit by an intelligence chief does not necessarily mean that, when he stepped off the aircraft, he was carrying a mysterious black suitcase bearing the label:

“Bangladesh’s Secret Information—Do Not Open!”

In reality, the world of intelligence is not quite that cinematic.

In fact, it can be even more mysterious than cinema!

---

Chapter One: When the Guest Is the RAW Chief

Parag Jain is the chief of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW)—one of India’s principal agencies responsible for gathering and analysing foreign intelligence.

When an official of this stature visits a country, journalists, diplomats and political analysts naturally begin looking for meaning in every word of the visit.

Because when an ambassador arrives, the question is:

“What was discussed?”

But when an intelligence chief arrives, the question becomes:

“And what was not discussed?”

That is the charm of an intelligence visit!

---

Chapter Two: Why Dhaka, and Why Now?

This is where the real intrigue begins.

Relations between Bangladesh and India have gone through considerable ups and downs in recent years. Particularly after the political changes of 2024, a degree of distance emerged between the two countries. After the new government took office in 2026, however, there have been visible efforts to reduce that distance.

During his August 10 meeting with India’s High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman spoke of the need to create a “conducive environment” for improving relations between the two countries. The presence of the RAW chief in Dhaka on the very same day therefore carries an additional significance.

In other words, on the same day:

At the door of diplomacy—an ambassador.
At the door of security—the RAW chief.

One might be saying:

“Let us improve our relationship.”

And the other may perhaps be thinking:

“Let us do that—but first, let us see who is standing where!”

---

Chapter Three: Is Sheikh Hasina One of the Characters in This Story?

Here the story becomes even more sensitive.

Sheikh Hasina is currently in India. Bangladesh has sought her extradition. Following her public remarks in India on August 5, a fresh sense of unease emerged in Dhaka-New Delhi relations. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, during his August 10 meeting with the Indian High Commissioner, also spoke about the need to normalise relations against this broader political backdrop.

So the question naturally arises:

Was Sheikh Hasina’s situation discussed during the RAW chief’s meeting?

The answer is: There has been no public confirmation.

Yet from the standpoint of political analysis, the issue cannot be considered entirely irrelevant.

One of the most sensitive questions in Bangladesh-India relations today is Sheikh Hasina’s status and Bangladesh’s request for her extradition.

However, it would be an exaggeration to conclude that the RAW chief’s visit was necessarily centred on this single issue.

There is perhaps a saying in the intelligence world:

> “The subject everyone talks about is important;
but the subject nobody talks about may be even more important!”

 

---

Chapter Four: Borders, Security and the Regional Equation

The Bangladesh-India border is one of the most important international borders in the region. It is therefore normal for the security establishments of the two countries to maintain communication on border security, smuggling, narcotics, human trafficking, cross-border crime, extremism and regional security.

So if a senior official such as the RAW chief comes to Dhaka and exchanges views on the security situation, that would hardly be unusual.

Indeed, given the tensions in relations between the two countries, it would be more unusual if their respective security establishments did not communicate with each other.

Because a relationship with a neighbour is somewhat like living in a neighbouring apartment.

You can quarrel. You can shut your door.

But if the neighbour’s apartment catches fire, the smoke will eventually enter your own home!

---

Chapter Five: Are China and Pakistan Invisible Characters?

From India’s strategic perspective, Bangladesh is not merely a neighbouring country; it is an important part of the geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal, northeastern India and the wider South Asian region.

Recent Indian analyses have also discussed the possible influence of China and Pakistan in Bangladesh. However, caution is necessary when making any specific claims about such matters.

The RAW chief’s visit to Dhaka cannot simply be labelled a “mission to contain China” or a “mission to contain Pakistan.”

But the fact that India closely monitors Bangladesh’s strategic position is a geopolitical reality.

On a chessboard, no matter how important the king and queen may be, one must also keep an eye on the direction in which the knight is moving.

And keeping such an eye is, after all, what intelligence agencies are supposed to do!

---

Chapter Six: So, Is the Ice Beginning to Melt?

In my analysis, this may be the most significant aspect of the visit.

There are now visible indications that both sides want to increase communication in order to reduce the distance that has developed in Bangladesh-India relations in recent times.

The Prime Minister’s meeting with India’s High Commissioner and the RAW chief’s meeting in Dhaka on the very same day can therefore be viewed as two different layers of a broader process of normalising relations.

One is:

Political and diplomatic engagement.

The other is:

Security and strategic engagement.

When both move forward simultaneously, it suggests that the relationship is being reworked not merely through press releases, but also at deeper levels of the state.

---

Final Chapter: What Was in the Suitcase?

Parag Jain came to Dhaka.

He held his meetings.

And then he left.

But the curiosity of ordinary Bangladeshis remains:

“What was discussed?”

The intelligence world, of course, does not tell ordinary people everything.

That is part of its professional charm.

So we do not know what was inside his suitcase.

Perhaps some documents.

Perhaps some questions.

Perhaps some answers.

Perhaps an old ledger of the relationship between the two countries.

And perhaps the most important item of all was—

an invisible thermometer for measuring the temperature of relations between the two countries.

---

Conclusion: Let Friendship Exist—but with Dignity

The RAW chief’s visit to Dhaka, therefore, should not be viewed merely as an intelligence visit. That would miss the larger picture.

It may simultaneously represent security communication, an effort to rebuild diplomatic relations, and an attempt by two neighbouring countries to understand their new realities.

For Bangladesh, however, the most important point is this:

Relations with India should be normal, friendly and cooperative in the field of security—but they must be based on mutual respect, sovereign equality and national interests.

Because neighbours cannot be changed.

But the nature of the relationship with a neighbour can be changed.

And if that relationship can be expressed as:

“You are my friend, and I am your friend—but the key to my house will remain in my own pocket,”

then that is friendship in its truest sense.

The final word, therefore, is simple:

> The sound of the RAW chief’s footsteps on Dhaka’s soil may be important;
but even more important is what Dhaka said, what Delhi heard,
and how the two countries translate the meaning of those words into reality in the days ahead.