1. The Convergence of Four Countries—not Merely an Alliance, but a New Map of Power*

In the third decade of the twenty-first century, a new constellation is gradually becoming visible in the sky of world politics—CRINK: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

It is not yet a formal four-nation military alliance like NATO. Rather, it is a strategic security belt emerging through mutual interests, arms and technology, intelligence cooperation, economic transactions, military exercises, and joint efforts to withstand Western sanctions. The US-based CSIS also observes that cooperation among these four countries has increased rapidly, although evidence of formal four-way military coordination remains limited.

But major changes in history are not always first written on the pages of treaties. Often, the seeds of transformation are sown quietly—in arms shipments, exchanges of technology, military exercises, and common positions against a shared adversary.

*2. Why Are These Four Countries Coming Together*

The four countries have different geographical locations, different economic structures, and different political ideologies. Yet they face a common reality—the need to preserve their strategic independence from the pressures and sanctions of the US-led world order.

China seeks to reduce America’s unilateral dominance in the global system.

Russia seeks to reconstruct its strategic influence from Europe to Asia.

Iran seeks to ensure its national security by confronting US-Israeli influence in the Middle East.

North Korea seeks to secure its survival against the United States and its allies through nuclear and missile capabilities.

In other words, although the four countries do not share identical objectives, the direction of their resistance points toward the same horizon.

*3. The Battlefield Has Become a University of Technology*

The Russia-Ukraine war has given CRINK cooperation a new dimension. Iranian drone technology has reached Russia; North Korea has provided Russia with large quantities of ammunition and military assistance; and, in return, Russia has been able to pass on its battlefield experience and military technology to its partners. Research has even pointed to the flow of Iranian technology toward North Korea and China through Russia.

As a result, war is no longer confined to the battlefield.

One country’s battlefield experience is entering another country’s arsenal;
one country’s technology is being transformed into another country’s drones;
one country’s strategy for circumventing sanctions is becoming another country’s economic shield.

This is the real strength of CRINK.

*4. Russia–North Korea: The Military Backbone of the Belt*

Among the CRINK countries, the most visible military relationship at present is between Russia and North Korea.

Following the 2024 strategic partnership treaty, military relations between the two countries have deepened rapidly. In 2026, Russia and North Korea have continued moving toward further institutionalizing military cooperation. At the same time, North Korea has sought to expand its relations with both China and Russia while maintaining a strategic balance between the two powers.

The inauguration of a new road bridge on the Russia–North Korea border in September 2026 has also emerged as a symbol of the two countries’ growing long-term connectivity.

It is as if this were a preview of a scene from the future—

Moscow at one end, Pyongyang at the other;
a border river in between;
and across that river, not merely vehicles, but economics, technology and strategic relations are also crossing.

*5. China: The Quiet but Most Powerful Pillar*

China is the greatest strength of CRINK. Taken together—its economy, industry, technology, trade, manufacturing capacity and diplomatic influence—China could become the central power of this emerging belt.

If Russia provides military power,
if Iran provides strategic depth in the Middle East,
if North Korea provides nuclear deterrence and military manpower,
then China can provide economic and technological sustainability.

This combination could create the greatest strategic challenge for the United States in the future.

*6. The Decline of America—or the End of American Unipolar Dominance*

This is where the most important question arises.

Although the idea that “the ultimate objective of CRINK is the downfall of America” is used in political analysis, it cannot yet be established as a declared state objective of the four countries. Rather, research indicates that a major purpose of their cooperation is to withstand US pressure, circumvent sanctions, and increase their strategic independence.

Yet history reveals an important distinction.

The decline of an empire does not always begin with the occupation of its capital.

Sometimes its decline begins when—

its currency’s unilateral dominance diminishes,
its sanctions begin to lose their effectiveness,
the cost of its military presence increases,
a crisis of trust emerges among its allies,
and its rivals begin building alternative systems among themselves.

This is where the potential impact of CRINK lies.

*7. Future Wars May Begin Without a Declaration of War*

Imagine, for a moment, a morning sometime in the 2030s.

Military tensions emerge simultaneously in several regions of the world.

In East Asia, North Korea increases pressure along the border.

In the Indo-Pacific, China expands its military presence.

In the Middle East, Iran activates its drone and missile defence systems.

In the European theatre, Russia creates military pressure.

Then Washington faces the question—

Which fire should be put out first?

This could become CRINK’s most formidable strategic advantage.

They may not wage a war together; rather, by creating the possibility of multiple simultaneous theatres of conflict, they could stretch and disperse American power. Recent military analyses have also viewed the Russia–North Korea relationship as a potential component in creating such multi-directional pressure.

*8. The Vulnerable Side of CRINK*

It would be a mistake to consider this belt invincible.

The interests of China and Russia are not always identical. China’s relationship with Iran is primarily pragmatic. North Korea maintains a balance between China and Russia according to its own interests. Mutual trust among the four countries also has its limitations.

Various analyses in 2026 have shown that, during crises, although China and Russia may politically support Iran, they remain highly cautious about directly entering a war on Iran’s behalf.

Therefore, CRINK is not yet a military force operating under a unified command.

Rather, it is a flexible network of power.

*9. The Future World: Not Bipolar, but a Struggle Among Multiple Powers*

The world of the Cold War was essentially bipolar.

The world of the future may be different.

On one side, the United States and its allies.

On the other, the growing coordination among China–Russia–Iran–North Korea.

And in between will stand India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and many countries of Latin America—countries that may avoid fully entering any single camp and instead shift their positions according to their own national interests.

In such a world, power will mean more than nuclear bombs; power will mean control over technology, economics, food, energy, cyber capabilities, outer space, sea routes and information.

*10. The Final Scene: A New Chapter in History*

Perhaps one day historians will look back at the 2020s and say—

“That was when the foundations of the old world order began to tremble.”

Some may say that America’s decline began at that very moment.

Others may say that America did not collapse—rather, the era of America’s unilateral global leadership came to an end.

And CRINK may not have been the sole force behind that transformation; but it was a strategic power network capable of confronting the United States with competition from multiple directions at the same time.

The curtain on the future has not yet fully risen.

But the stage is being prepared.

On one side, the old power of the Atlantic,
on the other, the new connections of Eurasia,
the volcanic geography of the Middle East,
and the nuclear shadow of East Asia.

Perhaps the greatest question of the next world war will not be who defeats whom; rather, it will be who acquires the power to reshape the world in accordance with its own vision.

And if CRINK truly evolves into an effective military-security belt at the threshold of that new world, something far greater than the downfall of America could occur—the end of the era of unilateral dominance and the beginning of a new world order shaped by multipolar power.

*[ Professor M. A. Barnik is a well-known international geopolitical observer and high-level defence analyst ]*